2026-04-21 — Seed + landmark pass¶
This update combines two ingests: (1) a 3-month incremental backfill from Europe PMC (1,000 candidates → 18 extractions), and (2) a curated landmark ingest of 32 foundational PMIDs covering the established pre-2024 literature on ICI resistance.
Structural change: the synthesis was restructured with a visual tier pill on every claim — established / contested / suspected / emerging. The home page and all mechanism pages now carry four buckets (what has held up, where the field has contradicted itself, what's suspected, what's new).
Schema addition: EvidenceTier enum added to scripts/lib/schemas.py and incorporated into ClaimInState. Future synthesis runs will track tiering of every claim.
What's genuinely new this period (emerging)¶
- ATOMIC phase 3 (NEJM): adjuvant atezolizumab + mFOLFOX6 in stage III dMMR colon cancer, HR 0.50 PMID 41880612. Extends ICI benefit to adjuvant dMMR; OS not yet mature.
- KLRG1 as novel inhibitory checkpoint with a new anti-human mAb PMID 41956544. Distinct from the PD-1/CTLA-4/LAG-3/TIM-3 axis.
- Anti-TIM-3 + anti-PD-1 achieves 52% ORR in PD-1-pretreated classical Hodgkin lymphoma PMID 41963080.
- TROP2-claudin-7 tight-junction barrier excludes T cells from TNBC PMID 41932810 — reframes TROP2 as barrier-mechanism target.
- PKMYT1 inhibition activates cGAS-STING in CRPC PMID 41617394. Novel ICI-sensitizer in a stubbornly refractory tumor type.
- IFN-γ → IRF1 → AGPAT3 axis sensitizes tumors to ferroptosis PMID 41807033 — extends IFN-γ signaling into lipid metabolism.
- LOAd703 + atezolizumab in anti-PD-1-refractory melanoma restores ICI-responsive signatures PMID 41888981.
- 8-gene k-TSP + mucinous biomarker identifies dMMR/MSI-H mCRC subgroup for anti-CTLA-4 addition (HR 0.10) PMID 41950572. Retrospective; prospective validation called for.
- Six spatial niches outperform PD-L1 IHC for neoadjuvant cSCC response PMID 41617396.
- hMENA TGF-β-driven CAF signature validated against OAK phase III PMID 41592891.
Genuinely surprising / suspected¶
- PD-1 protects clonally expanding T cells from restimulation-induced cell death (in vitro) PMID 41748562. If replicated in vivo, complicates the release-the-brakes framing of anti-PD-1.
- AARS1-mediated PD-L1 K280 lactylation blocks HUWE1 ubiquitination PMID 41864972; paradoxically, exogenous lactate enhanced anti-PD-L1 preclinically — mechanism needs reconciliation.
- HILPDA-KLF5-palmitoylation at PD-L1 Cys272 PMID 41876831; fenretinide engagement of TRIM21 restores anti-PD-1 efficacy.
- deltaHED (germline + somatic HLA-I evolutionary divergence) predicts worse PD-1 outcomes despite higher TMB PMID 41601354. Inverts the naïve HED prediction; retrospective.
- Hypoalbuminemia causally drives ICI resistance via macrophage arginine metabolism PMID 41940988.
- M2 TAM-PGE2 → TIGIT on PD-1+ CD8+ in MSS CRC PMID 41196020 — specific combinatorial rationale for an indication where PD-1 has consistently failed.
Landmark context added¶
32 foundational PMIDs integrated into the synthesis, anchoring the established and contested tiers. Highlights:
- Zaretsky 2016 NEJM (JAK1/2 + B2M LOF in acquired resistance) PMID 27433843
- Rizvi 2015 Science (TMB → NSCLC pembro response) PMID 25765070
- Le 2017 Science (dMMR pan-cancer) PMID 28596308
- McGranahan 2017 Cell (HLA LOH in NSCLC evolution) PMID 29107330
- Tumeh 2014 Nature (pre-existing CD8 infiltrate) PMID 25428505
- Mariathasan 2018 / Tauriello 2018 Nature (TGF-β exclusion biology) PMID 29443960 / PMID 29443964
- Spranger 2015 / Peng 2016 / Skoulidis 2018 (tumor-intrinsic resistance) PMID 25970248 / PMID 26645196 / PMID 29773717
- Siddiqui 2019 / Sade-Feldman 2018 / Alfei 2019 (stem-like CD8, TCF1, TOX biology) PMID 30635237 / PMID 30388456 / PMID 31207603
- Gopalakrishnan 2018 / Routy 2018 / Sivan 2015 / Vétizou 2015 (microbiome) PMID 29097493 / PMID 29097494 / PMID 26541606 / PMID 26541610
- Baruch 2021 / Davar 2021 Science (FMT rescue) PMID 33303685 / PMID 33542131
- Hodi 2010 / Topalian 2012 / Reck 2016 / Larkin 2015 / André 2020 (clinical foundations) PMID 20525992 / PMID 22658127 / PMID 27718847 / PMID 26027431 / PMID 33264544
Contested / under-replicated findings explicitly flagged in the synthesis¶
- HLA-I LOH is not deterministic for ICI response (some LOH patients respond)
- β2M loss does not uniformly prevent response
- TMB pan-tumor generalization is debated (FDA pan-tumor approval controversial)
- Microbiome responder taxa do not replicate across geographies (meta-analyses Lee 2022, McCulloch 2022)
- Akkermansia relationship is non-monotonic (Derosa 2022)
- Bacteroidales sign-flipped across CTLA-4 vs PD-1 studies
- TGF-β clinical translation has failed despite strong biology (bintrafusp alfa, galunisertib, NIS793)
- bTMB prospective validation failed (B-F1RST)
- PBRM1 LOF in ccRCC did not replicate (Braun 2020)
- IPRES underperformed as independent predictor
- KEYNOTE-177 biphasic PFS + failed OS significance
- IDO + pembrolizumab failed (ECHO-301)
- WNT/β-catenin clinical signal weaker than mouse biology
- Snyder 2014 "shared tetrapeptide signature" did not replicate
These are the calibration points most useful for a reader of the resistance literature, and they are now explicit on each mechanism page.